Shipments of non-public computer systems grew in 2024, fueled by companies changing previous {hardware} and Microsoft’s looming finish of help for its Windows 10 working system.
According to market analysis agency Canalys, PC shipments climbed 3.8% in 2024 to 255.5 million models from 246.3 million in 2023. IDC, one other analysis agency, pegged 2024 shipments larger — 262.7 million — nevertheless it additionally had larger 2023 shipments — 260.2 million, for a year-over-year enhance of 1%.
“2024 was a year of modest recovery and a return to traditional seasonality for the PC market as full-year shipments grew 3.8%,” Canalys Analyst Kieren Jessop stated in an announcement.
“Growth increased slightly in Q4, with shipments rising by 4.6% year on year, signaling a positive trend as we moved to within a year of the Windows 10 end-of-support date,” he continued.
“Holiday season demand was supported by strong discounting by vendors and retailers, enticing consumers who have become increasingly price-sensitive,” he acknowledged.
Jessop famous that using purchase now, pay later companies supported that pattern, with growing examples of these choices being leveraged to drive spending on big-ticket gadgets, reminiscent of PCs.
Meanwhile, he added that in China, authorities stimulus within the type of shopper subsidies helped to advertise spending on notebooks amid a weakening demand surroundings.
Strong Seasonal Sales
“Though the market has been experiencing a slower return to growth, there was some room for optimism in Q4 as government subsidies in China led to better than expected performance within the consumer segment,” IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers Research Manager Jitesh Ubrani stated in an announcement.
“Beyond that,” he continued, “the U.S. and some European countries also showed strong performance due to end-of-year sale promotions, as well as enterprises continuing on the path of upgrading hardware before the end of support for Windows 10, which is scheduled for October 2025.”
“Year-end sales were a little bit more aggressive than we’ve seen in recent years,” added IDC Program Vice President for Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers Ryan Reith.
Much of the promotional exercise within the PC house all through 2024 was aimed toward transferring stock, he famous. “PC makers wanted to keep things moving, even if it meant smaller margins because getting people on new hardware means other opportunities like selling them new software,” he advised TechNewsWorld.
Commercial shipments, representing about 50% of the worldwide PC market, had been additionally an necessary a part of the expansion story. “Companies refresh their PCs at a pretty stingy cadence,” Reith stated. “Usually, it’s between three and four years in most of the developed markets. It can go a little bit longer in developing markets. But the reason they do that is not because the hardware isn’t good. It’s usually because of the software.”
“Businesses can only go so long before they refresh. You’re not gonna keep a PC for 10 years in a business,” added Jack E. Gold, founder and principal analyst with J.Gold Associates, an IT advisory firm in Northborough, Mass.
“Covid brought in a ton of new machines three, three and a half, years ago,” he advised TechNewsWorld. “Most companies refresh on a three-year basis. So we’re gonna see an uptick in business buying of PCs.”
End of Days for Win10
Jessop added {that a} important issue contributing to PC cargo development in 2024, which is able to proceed in 2025, is the dimensions and age of the put in {hardware} base. “It’s never been larger or older than now,” he advised TechNewsWorld.
That’s why Canalys forecasts that industrial PC shipments will proceed to outgrow shopper shipments. “Consumer price sensitivity and budget prioritization mean many people are delaying their next purchase,” Jessop defined.
Another issue stoking PC shipments is Microsoft’s announcement that it’s going to cease supporting Windows 10 in October 2025. “Hundreds of millions of those old PCs are ineligible to update to Windows 11, so businesses will be nudged toward refreshing their devices,” Jessop stated.
“Microsoft is getting increasingly aggressive in letting customers know that support is going to be ending, and they really need to upgrade to Windows 11,” added Ross Rubin, the principal analyst with Reticle Research, a shopper know-how advisory agency in New York City.
“Given the relatively stringent requirements for that, the only way to do so is to purchase a new computer,” he advised TechNewsWorld.
AI PCs Puzzle Consumers
Jessop cited the introduction of AI PCs into the market as an influencer of development. “They’re being positioned as a halo category and are being used to open the door to conversations around a wider fleet refresh,” he stated.
Paul Schell, an trade analyst with world know-how intelligence agency ABI Research, sees AI PCs as having a major influence on development. “We continue to see the introduction of AI PCs, and in particular notebooks/laptops, as being the driving force behind a shortening of refresh cycles,” he advised TechNewsWorld.
“In the AI PC segment, challenger Qualcomm has expanded its portfolio to include fewer premium chipsets — including an SKU targeting the $600 laptop range — which has a democratizing effect, as the first releases from all vendors, including Apple, Intel and AMD, were more premium,” he stated.
Jessop, although, famous that regardless of the hype across the PCs at CES final week, the computer systems have did not generate a lot pleasure amongst consumers. “Many channel partners we surveyed indicated that their customers are either unaware of Copilot+ PCs or are unwilling to pay a premium price for them, even if they are aware,” he famous.
“This dual challenge limits the ability of the category to create a strong aspirational pull or halo effect,” he continued. “Customers are prioritizing pricing over perceived innovation, suggesting the value proposition for Copilot+ PCs needs stronger articulation or refining.”
AI PCs will likely be a giant deal in 2025, contended Mark N. Vena, president and principal analyst with SmartTech Research in Las Vegas. “With special chips called NPUs [Neural Processing Units], they’re great for tasks like AI, language processing, and predicting things,” he advised TechNewsWorld. “Businesses and people will want PCs that can use AI to make their work easier, more creative, and more automated.”
“I’m not convinced — yet — that AI will be a dominating factor, but as AI usage models become more compelling, AI PCs will become more attractive to the average mainstream user,” he stated.
Eric Compton, director of know-how fairness analysis at Morningstar Research Services in Chicago, maintained that 2025 would be the similar as 2024 when it comes to fueling development in PC shipments.
“The continued PC refresh cycle and the need to replace machines purchased during the boom years of 2020 and 2021 will be the primary factors,” he advised TechNewsWorld. “If AI PCs can improve their functionality and generate some more unique demand, this could be a wildcard for additional demand.”