On January 9, 2007, on the Macworld conference, Steve Jobs launched the primary iPhone. Later, in June the identical yr, it was launched — and the world would by no means be the identical once more.
Before that second, few individuals cared about a pc of their pocket. Smartphones already existed, however they had been nonetheless used primarily for calls, textual content messages and emails.
The idea of a powerful pocket-size device that could handle shopping, banking, navigation, entertainment, and many more things sounded absurd to most people. If you had told them that within a decade their daily routines, social lives, and even careers would revolve around this “piece of glass,” they would probably have laughed.
When individuals ask me about the way forward for humanoid robots, I typically confer with this second, as a result of I consider they might observe an identical trajectory. What begins as a curiosity and a distinct segment platform may quickly evolve into an important device for work and life.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley venture that the humanoids market may surpass $5 trillion by 2050. The market indicators recommend we’re already on that trajectory: real-world adoption is underway, early deployments and pilots are shifting into place.
Companies that after handled humanoids as a curiosity at the moment are altering their attitudes, and the know-how is making headlines nearly day by day. With predicted 1 billion humanoid robots by 2050, it may change into a serious societal shift.
Meet your new robot co-worker
Humanoid robots are first making their way into industrial settings, and it’s already happening.
Agility Robotics’ Digit is moving heavy containers at GXO-operated Spanx warehouse in Atlanta. Figure 02 robot works at BMW Group Plant Spartanburg in South Carolina, supporting plant employees in bodily demanding duties. Mercedes-Benz exams Apptronik’s Apollo for repetitive duties.
These are just some actual pilots occurring proper now.
At Humanoid, now we have gone from founding the corporate to testing first prototypes with shoppers in below a yr — a tempo that may have been unthinkable just a few years in the past. And I see rising business curiosity all over the place I am going.
The cause is easy: labor shortages are a brand new operational actuality, particularly in industries akin to manufacturing.
Last yr, a National Association of Manufacturers Outlook Survey within the US discovered that over 71% of producers had problem attracting and retaining workers.
Globally, the difficulty will solely intensify as populations age. The UN expects the variety of individuals aged 65 and older to greater than double, from 761 million in 2021 to 1.6 billion by 2050. The variety of individuals aged 80 and over is rising even sooner.
That’s the place humanoid robots step in.
For companies, the advantages are clear: better effectivity, fewer office accidents, predictable prices, and a sharper aggressive edge. Yes, right this moment humanoids are very pricey, however bear in mind the primary smartphones?
With scale, costs fall rapidly. In reality, Bain & Company stories that unit prices for humanoid robots dropped by greater than 40% between 2022 and 2024, whereas EU labor prices rose by 5% from 2023 to 2024.
For peculiar individuals, this implies we’ll begin interacting with humanoids a lot before we expect. Some of us would possibly see them in retail shops, others could begin working alongside humanoid colleagues. But these alternatives additionally increase new questions.
How will we combine humanoids into workplaces designed for individuals? Should they be seen as instruments, assistants, or teammates? How will we redesign workflows for robots and other people to collaborate? We don’t have all of the solutions but, however we’ll want to search out them quickly.
The сoming wave of humanoid nurses, caregivers and concierges
The next frontier for humanoid robots is the service economy — and the timing couldn’t be more critical. According to WHO, by 2030, 1 in 6 people in the world will be aged 60 years or over.
The share of the population aged over 60 will increase from 1 billion to 1.4 billion. This demographic and economic shift will accelerate the demand for new types of labor.
Healthcare is one of the clearest pressure points. WHO estimates a shortfall of 11 million health workers by 2030, with the sharpest gaps in low- and lower-middle income countries.
Humanoids won’t replace doctors, but they can complement human teams: helping nurses with physically demanding tasks like patient lifting, monitoring vital signs, transporting supplies, or even guiding rehabilitation exercises.
Japan gives us a preview of this future. With one of the fastest-ageing populations in the world, the country is already testing robots in elder care homes.
At Tokyo’s Shin-tomi nursing home, 20 different robot models are used to support residents. For example, the currently “retired” Pepper was used to guide group exercise sessions. The Japanese government sees this as a way to channel its robotics expertise into a solution for its elderly population.
Of course, challenges remain, with runtime being one of the essential ones. Imagine a robot pausing to recharge while supporting a patient lift.
That’s why companies are racing to prepare for this shift. UBTech recently showed their Walker S2 with the ability to autonomously swap their own batteries in under 3 minutes, making round-the-clock operation possible.
Hospitality is another sector in the line for change. We’ve seen robot concierges and delivery bots before, but humanoid platforms promise to go further.
They could bring room service straight to guests, handle luggage, or assist at reception desks. For hotels struggling with labor shortages, it’s a scalable way to keep standards high without burning out staff.
Within a few years, this could become the new normal. Checking into a hotel and being greeted by a humanoid, or walking through a hospital where robots deliver equipment, will feel more and more natural.
Much like self-checkout kiosks today, humanoids could become the background of modern life. This is what “service” in the 21st century will look like.
Home: always assisted
Just as the iPhone redefined what personal computing meant, humanoid robots could redefine domestic life by bringing real physical help into every home.
We’ve all seen the viral clips of robots unloading dishwashers, carrying groceries, or folding laundry. Within the next decade, this could become everyday reality.
Companies are already pushing in this direction. 1X positions its NEO Gamma as “Your personal assistant and companion” with idyllic videos showing humans and robots living side by side.
Just days ago, the company made headlines by opening pre-orders. The first models available in tan, gray, and dark brown colors are expected to arrive in homes by 2026. NEO could be yours for $20,000 or with a $499 monthly subscription.
Figure AI, which started with industrial robots, has also pivoted toward the domestic space, revealing that their humanoids will begin “alpha testing” in homes in 2025. Since then, their robots have been busy washing dishes, folding towels, and doing laundry.
For aging societies, the impact goes beyond convenience. For a 75-year-old person living alone, a humanoid that carries groceries, reminds about medication, or helps with daily chores could mean the difference between moving to a care facility and staying independent at home.
If the smartphone made us “always connected,” humanoid robots could make us “always assisted.”
The question is not if, but how fast
Skeptics often argue that humanoid robots are too expensive or too awkward to be practical.
But I’ve heard these doubts before. People said the same thing about smartphones, personal computers or some other rising know-how. I bear in mind when the primary smartphones had been clunky and overpriced. And then app ecosystems exploded, costs dropped, and all of a sudden we couldn’t think about life with out them.
Humanoid robots are at that very same difficult-yet-exciting stage. Right now, they’re pricey, imperfect, typically extremely clumsy. But give them a decade, or much less, and they are going to be all over the place.
At some level, robots will hit an inflection level pushed by a number of components. First, the rising pool of information will make VLA fashions smarter.
The rise of recent coaching strategies like reinforcement studying or simulation will assist robots leap towards human-level capabilities and past. New security requirements will construct belief. Improved provide chains will decrease elements worth and manufacturing prices.
Finally, clients themselves will change. As extra companies and customers perceive the actual advantages of humanoid robots, adoption will speed up.
And identical to smartphones, humanoid robots gained’t be single-purpose instruments. Smartphones went from being telephones to turning into cameras, GPS gadgets, wallets, and leisure hubs.
They didn’t simply change how we talk, however reshaped our consideration spans, {our relationships}, our work-life steadiness, love life. Humanoid robots will spark equally profound debates. What occurs when a robotic offers look after an ageing father or mother? What does it imply for privacy and security?
I don’t underestimate the highway forward, however I additionally understand how rapidly applied sciences speed up as soon as they hit a crucial adoption level. Yet, humanoid robots will not be devices. They are infrastructure within the making.
Right now, they’re the place smartphones had been in 2007: simply beginning to reveal their potential. The actual query just isn’t if they’ll rework our lives, however how briskly.
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