The ball has dropped and we’ve formally made it to a brand new 12 months. Heading into 2024, the online game business finds itself in an particularly fascinating place. We’re coming off a historic 12 months for gaming that was crammed with large releases and devastating layoffs in equal half. Game corporations are left balancing their cultural successes and their enterprise failures proper now. But how will these scales tip this 12 months?
The wanting it’s that we’re heading into maybe essentially the most mysterious 12 months for gaming in a really very long time. We’re midway by way of a console cycle, heavy hitters like Grand Theft Auto 6 aren’t coming till 2025, and a whole lot of corporations are going to make due with considerably smaller staffs. There’s all the time an opportunity that the business places collectively one other blockbuster 12 months crammed with sudden surprises, but it surely’ll be pulling that out of skinny air if that’s the case.
As I do yearly round this time, I’ve taken a crack at predicting the place gaming is headed in 2024. While final 12 months’s version included one large miss, I used to be largely on the cash when it got here to grander predictions in regards to the rise of unionization and this newest console gen kicking into second gear. This 12 months is extra of a problem to foretell, however there’s a good bit we are able to glean even from a quiet schedule.
The massive sport cycle slows manner down
Square Enix
It’s no secret that 2023 was an amazing 12 months when it got here to big-budget online game releases. It was filled with mainstream blockbusters like Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. The undeniable fact that Xbox’s Starfield ended the 12 months as a B-game that didn’t even snag a Game of the Year nomination at The Game Awards speaks to what a jam-packed 12 months it was.
Don’t count on that to proceed in 2024. Last 12 months was a little bit of a particular case. What we actually noticed was the long-term results of the COVID-19 pandemic coming into play. While video games that have been already close to the top of growth when the pandemic began didn’t endure an excessive amount of, titles that also had a couple of years to go confronted for much longer setbacks. Part of the pileup we witnessed final 12 months was the results of that, with delayed initiatives dropping into what would have been an in any other case normal launch 12 months. Things ought to return to regular from right here, although the consequences of these early COVID years will nonetheless seemingly shuffle some timelines.
The essential cause you need to count on a slowdown, although, is because of layoffs. The gaming business shed 1000’s of jobs final 12 months, with complete studios getting shut down. Projects just like the deliberate TimeSplitters revival and the Last of Us multiplayer sport are lifeless, whereas Bungie has needed to shift its timelines after chopping jobs. Like COVID, the consequences of this may not be felt immediately, however for those who’re asking your self “Where’s all the games?” within the subsequent few years, ask the publishers who laid off the parents who make them.
Nintendo’s subsequent console takes middle stage
Nintendo
If you have been wanting on the present 2024 launch schedule at face worth, you’d in all probability assume Nintendo was due for a bum 12 months. Currently, the writer solely has a handful of video games coming — and so they aren’t precisely heavy hitters. Aside from a brand new Princess Peach sport, we’re largely getting previous video games to spherical out the Switch’s twilight years. A remake of the area of interest Mario vs. Donkey Kong is coming alongside HD ports of video games like Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door. It doesn’t at the moment look like we’ll get something to compete with the likes of Super Mario Bros. Wonder.
Of course, that’s provided that we ignore the rumor mill. Chatter means that Nintendo is poised to drop its subsequent system, which it reportedly confirmed to builders behind closed doorways at Gamescom, in 2024. If that does come to fruition, count on the second half of the 12 months to be all about Nintendo as Sony and Microsoft enter the much less thrilling midpoints of their console cycles. A brand new Nintendo system might imply some shock vacation releases like Mario Kart 9 that dominate the information cycle.
There’s an much more fascinating chance right here too: that it’s a complete flop. Nintendo beforehand struggled to capitalize on the profitable Wii with the Wii U. That system wound up complicated gamers who didn’t know if it was one thing new or an expensive add-on. Whatever the Switch 2 finally ends up being, it’ll must really feel like a completely new machine relatively than an non-obligatory improve. The stakes are very excessive, however I count on that Nintendo could have discovered from its errors and can ship a buzzworthy follow-up.
PlayStation sinks, Xbox swims
Future Publishing/Getty Images / Future Publishing
PlayStation and Xbox are in a a lot totally different place. Both the PS5 and Xbox Series X will have fun their four-year anniversaries in November 2024, which suggests we’re nearing the midway level of this console cycle. That’s a important second in any system’s life span. It’s the purpose the place corporations have burned by way of their most enjoyable launch window titles and must preserve gamers hooked with a constant string of robust releases. Sony and Microsoft might face very totally different narratives this 12 months.
For the previous, the PS5 finds itself in a clumsy spot. Last 12 months’s Final Fantasy XVI and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 gave the system the big-budget hits it wanted, however Sony’s launch schedule for the following 12 months isn’t as compelling. All we actually know is that we’re getting a Last of Us Part 2 rerelease this month, a extra area of interest shooter in Helldivers 2, and the console unique Final Fantasy VII Rebirth. Otherwise, the outlook is empty. A latest ransomware assault towards Insomniac Games leaked that Marvel’s Wolverine (or every other Insomniac sport) isn’t anticipated to reach this 12 months. Meanwhile, Sony has reportedly slowed its push into stay service, which included the aforementioned cancellation of a Last of Us multiplayer sport. A number of surprises are certain to return out of the woodwork finally, however that is the primary 12 months for the reason that PS5 launched the place gamers merely don’t have a clue what they’ll be enjoying for many of the 12 months.
Xbox, however, is poised to push its 2023 momentum. Last 12 months’s Xbox summer season showcase revealed a number of titles, exhibiting that Microsoft is able to make up for misplaced time within the Series X’s inconsistent life span. We’re anticipated to get two main titles in Senua’s Saga: Hellblade 2 and Avowed, whereas the long-delayed S.T.A.L.Okay.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl continues to be within the playing cards. With Bethesda and Activision Blizzard each beneath Microsoft’s wing now, we should always begin seeing extra constant first-party releases this 12 months simply as Sony’s personal inside efforts are prone to hit a snag.
That’s to not point out that Xbox may need some new {hardware} on the way in which, judging by paperwork that unintentionally leaked final 12 months. That incident revealed the existence of a refreshed Xbox Series X mannequin, in addition to a brand new eco-friendly controller with improved haptics. Expect an inverted model of 2022, a 12 months that noticed Xbox stroll away with no main releases whereas Sony packed in exclusives.
Summer Game Fest takes E3’s throne
ESA
While the enterprise facet of the business suffered a whole lot of losses this 12 months, December introduced one shock casualty. Just final month, the Electronic Software Association (ESA) formally introduced that it was retiring E3. The commerce expo, which has was as soon as seen as gaming’s Super Bowl, had struggled to stay related over time amid an increase in digital showcases, however the COVID-19 pandemic would show to be the nail within the coffin for the present. It’s each an inevitable ending and a somber loss for individuals who grew up revering the present and what it meant as a world-uniting watercooler occasion.
With E3 formally lifeless, there’s an influence vacuum that must be stuffed. Developers nonetheless want locations to point out their video games, in addition to in-person occasions the place they’ll attempt to strike offers with publishers. The solely different we’ve had up up to now is Geoff Keighley’s Summer Game Fest. The occasion, which began as a collection of stay streams, has expanded over time into an intimate, two-day press occasion in Los Angeles. This 12 months’s present scaled up the affair, but it surely was nonetheless a reasonably low-key present in comparison with the E3 galas of yesteryear.
Expect that to alter in 2024. E3’s demise provides a important second for Keighley to push his momentum with the present and switch it right into a full alternative. While you shouldn’t count on this 12 months’s version to fill a full conference middle, I predict a a lot bigger present that stretches past its present press-only setup. More days, a much bigger venue, and a public element are seemingly all on the desk as Keighley appears to be like to develop a profitable proof of idea. If nothing else, it is perhaps the 12 months that your native newscaster will learn the phrases “Summer Game Fest” off their prompter.
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