At the tip of yearly, there’s one article I at all times stay up for writing. I attempt to put the “Trends” in Digital Trends” by predicting the place gaming is headed within the coming yr. It’s a enjoyable thought experiment that places my experience to the check as I attempt to pull collectively narratives and pin down what the business is constructing to. Sometimes I’m spot-on. Other instances, I’m hilariously off.
As I started to consider this yr’s version, I made a decision to look again to what I’d written nearly precisely one yr in the past on New Year’s Day 2023. Some of my predictions have been proper on the cash, however others have been extra sobering. I anticipated some main development moments and devastating layoffs occurred as an alternative. Some of these have been onerous to see coming — particularly within the weird case of the Embracer Group. Still, my reflection on what I used to be anticipating jogged my memory of what a troublesome business video games will be even when its pumping out historic titles. This yr, I’m peeling again the curtain to speak about what I received proper and improper a few tumultuous 2023.
The FTC adjustments the sport
Microsoft
Prediction: The finish results of the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) investigation into Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard acquisition would have a significant influence on the business irrespective of the way it went. If Microsoft was profitable, I anticipated Sony would reply swiftly with a number of acquisitions. If the deal was blocked, I assumed it’d finish the present arms race between Sony and Microsoft.
What actually occurred: This was already a unfastened prediction, so it was going to be powerful to inform if it actually got here to fruition in 2023. At the second, I’d say that the prediction has but to be confirmed proper or improper; it’s too untimely to be both. The FTC ruling undoubtedly will have an effect on the business, however it’s not the form of factor we’ll absolutely see the outcomes of straight away. Microsoft solely beat the FTC in July, so there hasn’t been a lot time for Sony to reply. It may very well be planning some purchases, however we simply don’t know but.
This is a kind of areas the place unexpected circumstances might have put a dent in Sony’s plans. The firm has had an odd yr, to say the least. Its PlayStation VR2 headset didn’t garner mainstream consideration, President Jim Ryan introduced that he’s leaving the corporate, and Sony’s live-service plans have reportedly shifted behind the scenes (the latest cancellation of The Last of Us Online appears to help these rumors). It’s potential that Sony has an excessive amount of on its plate proper now and may’t pull off a string of main investments to compete with Microsoft. We’ll have to attend for 2024, which ought to be extra telling.
Right or improper? Neither … but.
Unionization beneficial properties floor
GWA
Prediction: After a profitable unionization push at Activision Blizzard in 2022, I predicted that unions can be high of thoughts for the business. I mentioned that we’d see extra gaming unions sprouting up and that it could proceed to be a significant speaking level going ahead.
What actually occurred: As anticipated, the momentum continued when it comes to unionization. Workers at firms like CD Projekt Red and ZeniMax Media gained union illustration this yr, marking vital pushes at a number of the business’s high firms. It’s clear that the union drive at Activision Blizzard had an influence, inspiring others to observe go well with.
Don’t count on that to cease anytime quickly. If something, 2023 proved why these unions are obligatory. It’s been a devastating yr for the online game business, as layoff waves have left hundreds of builders out of labor. Even large firms like Bungie and Naughty Dog have been a part of that, displaying that no quantity of notoriety or success can shield a employee’s job. That development is certain to trigger a firestorm that retains unionization on the high of thoughts for recreation staff in 2024 and past.
Right or improper? Right.
Next-gen lastly turns into next-gen
Sony Interactive Entertainment
Prediction: The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S technology felt prefer it nonetheless hadn’t kicked off by the tip of 2022. Most main video games have been nonetheless releasing cross-platform and never absolutely benefiting from new {hardware} because of this. I predicted that we’d see sufficient main releases ditch previous methods this yr, making it really feel just like the true begin of the brand new console technology.
What actually occurred: This was essentially the most correct prediction of all, even when it was a little bit straightforward to determine on the finish of 2022. Both Sony and Microsoft started launching their new releases as new system exclusives slightly than supporting the PS4 and Xbox One. Games have been extra spectacular due to that because of this. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 is a technical feat that might solely be potential on PS5 versus final yr’s God of War Ragnarok, which nonetheless had the hallmarks of a PS4 recreation in spots. Xbox received each Forza Motorsport and Starfield, two video games that pushed the Series X in numerous methods. All of those video games felt just like the launch titles we by no means received in 2020.
Now that the seal is damaged, count on PS4 and Xbox One to fade into the gap in 2024. We’re already seeing third-party builders ditch the methods extra persistently, signaling the tip. Games like Resident Evil 4 and Dead Space are solely accessible on new consoles, displaying that main studios are ready to chop off a giant participant base within the title of larger video games. We’ll nonetheless see indies and smaller releases launch throughout platforms, however if you wish to play subsequent yr’s greatest video games, you’ll want a brand new system.
Right or improper? Right.
Embracer Group takes over
Deep Silver
Prediction: After spending 2022 shopping for key studios and even the UP rights to The Lord of the Rings, I predicted that the rising Embracer Group would turn into a high title in gaming in 2023. The lofty prediction was that it could rise to the ranks of an organization like Tencent, changing into a company megapower pumping out a stream of notable releases.
What actually occurred: Well, that didn’t go based on plan, did it?
OK, look, it was onerous to see Embracer Group’s destiny coming. How was anybody to know that its success would hinge on a $2 billion take care of Savvy Games Group, a strong firm backed by the Saudi Arabian authorities? And who might have recognized that Savvy Games Group would unexpectedly again out of that deal, leaving Embracer excessive and dry? Even in the event you have been suspicious of the corporate’s absurd shopping for spree in 2022, this was the case of a freak enterprise accident gone awry.
And boy did it go awry. The fallout of Embracer’s failure has been the one most devastating occasion within the online game business this yr. It would set off mass layoffs throughout a number of Embracer studios and even shutter some fully. Free Radicals, which was engaged on a TimeSplitters reboot, is now fully gone. Developer Volition suffered the identical destiny after its underwhelming Saints Row reboot. The self-implosion is certain to wreck Embracer’s repute completely, although don’t count on the group to fade away fully. It nonetheless owns a ton of studios and has seemingly stripped down its formidable plans to one thing extra lifelike. That ought to assist it keep afloat, even when it’ll possible by no means be on the identical degree as Sony or Microsoft.
Right or improper? Very, very improper.
Editors’ Recommendations